Difference between revisions of "Talk:Lecture 5"

Revision as of 06:43, 30 September 2005

Decentralization of Terrorism and Implications on CBRN Weapons

Chris Fleizach - Jeffrey Bale noted at the end of his talk that he was certain a terrorist group would obtain and deploy a CBRN weapon within a reasonable time frame. The evidence that is generally accepted assumes that Al-Qaeda will be the group to perpetrate such an act due to their relative experience and ability in the pre-requisite areas mentioned (organization, logistics, finances, etc..). An issue that I didn't think was addressed is how has the "splintering" of Al-Qaeda (or any terrorist group) affected their chances of success. In Dr. Maurer's talks on the history of terrorism there was mention that after time ideological differences, changes in tactics and setbacks usually drew groups in opposite directions. Added to this governmental crack-downs, loss of popular support and the addition of "thugs" to its ranks would all diminish the potency of most terrorist organizations.

Certainly Al-Qaeda has begun to experience many of these symptoms. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been described as becoming the "new face of terrorism," although as a previous drug-dealer and possible rapist, his credentials seem to point towards thuggery instead of ideology. NY Times (9/18/05) His violent tactics, including beheadings and constant attacks on Shi'ites, have certainly turned away some of the popular support he may have enjoyed before.

The July 7th bombings in London, which Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for (as well as two separate groups) showed that acts did not need to originate from overseas. Only two of the bombers had been to Pakistan and initially Al-Qaeda leaders only said they supported the actions, indicating that direction may not have come from bin Laden BBC News (9/19/05). Indeed, Dr. Maurer's and Michael Nacht's lectures point to the possibility that Al-Qaeda is becoming more of a transnational movement based on an idea than a highly centralized organization. Bin Laden's isolation in remote Afghanistan or Pakistan certainly means the previous freedoms of communication and centralization he enjoyed with the Taliban have been restricted. (Pakistan claimed recently that Bin Laden's communications have been destroyed ChicagoSunTimes (9/26/05)).

This evidence seems to indicate a decline in the ability of, at least Al-Qaeda, to orchestrate and instigate an attack with CBRN weapons, an action which requires centralizing of finances, skills, logistics and organization, especially if communication has been limited. Although the frequency of small, individualized attacks may increase (as Iraq and Afghanistan has demonstrated), the ability to enact larger, more destructive, plans may remain out of the reach of an Al-Qaeda that is no longer orchestrated from one point.

I would be interested to see how the Center for Non-proliferation Studies monitors this "splintering" or decentralization, whether it can be modeled on historical trends and finally, how it has affected the ability of groups to use CBRN to cause mass destruction/disruption.

How probable is a CBRN attack?

Jeff Bilger - I would argue that it is not in Al-Qaeda's best interests to use CBRN weapons because such an attack would surely result in a swift and decisive response. Global political pressure or fallout would cease to deter the U.S. from pursuing all options.

Moreover, Al-Qaeda does not need any more significant, high profile successes in order to keep the recruits coming in. This may have been their goal prior to 9/11 but the Iraq War has given rise to a steady supply of people ready and willing to fight. If their goal is to form a global caliphate, then their best option is to attempt to cripple our economy by directed, small scale attacks, and not to wage war directly with the U.S.

If CBRN weapons were to be used, then a splinter group or some other terrorist organization would be the likely perpetrator. But do they really have the capabilities to pull it off? Even if they could pull it off, Al-Qaeda would get the blame, and this must make Al-Qaeda very nervous.

Altin Dastmalchi, UCB I agree that it is unlikely that Al Qaeda might attack us with a CBRN, however i do beleive that another future attack is inevitable, because of our foreign policy agenda and outcast. We have played a "lets scare them" card and this has pissed many outsiders off.

If however, Al Qaeda, a splinter group, or any terrorist group for that matter does get there hands on CBRN's then i dont agree that they would be scared to use them because of retaliation issues. I think what the guest lecture stated about media attention and kudos for their organization would encourage this type of action...

Thats my theory, anyone wish to reply?